14 October 2021

Ecological Threat Report 2021.

1.26 billion people at highest risk of conflict and displacement caused by environmental damage

On October 07 2021, marks the launch of the second Ecological Threat Report (ETR) from the international think tank, the Institute of Economics and Peace (IEP).

Key results

  • Eleven of 15 countries with the worst environmental threat scores are currently classified as being in conflict. Another four are classified as at high risk of substantial falls in peace, highlighting the relationship between resource degradation and conflict.
  • Half of the world's population will live in the 40 least peaceful countries, by 2050. This will be an increase of 1.3 billion people from 2020 levels.
  • New global poll data reveals only 23% of China's citizens see climate change as a serious threat making it the 7th least concerned country.
  • Global food insecurity has increased by 44% since 2014, affecting 30.4% of the world's population in 2020, and is likely to rise further.
  • COVID-19 has increased food insecurity and prevented refugees from returning home.
  • With conflict having cost the global economy $600 billion in 2020, the ETR shows that COP26 negotiations need to approve resilience funding to ecological hotspots before drivers of conflict intensify.
  • The ETR analyses a broad range of indicators associated with ecological risk including food and water availability, population growth and societal resilience, to better understand the countries most at risk of experiencing significant deterioration in peace.



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